The most useful way to read this week’s UK forecast is as a sequence: an unsettled Tuesday, a calmer Wednesday, and another change arriving from the Atlantic on Thursday. There will be dry windows, but they will not fall at the same time everywhere.
Tuesday: wet start in the south, blustery showers in the north
Low pressure north of the UK will keep showers moving through northern areas on Tuesday. Scotland is expected to see the most frequent and heaviest showers, with hail and thunder possible. Exposed locations could see gusts of 40 to 50 mph, and parts of western Scotland may receive 40 to 50 mm of rain. That combination could make journeys slower even where no formal warning is in force.
Across England and Wales, overnight rain will leave a wet start in places. The main rain band should clear southeastward by early afternoon, though the far southeast may hold onto it for longer. Brighter spells will follow. Southern temperatures should reach the low 20s Celsius, while northern areas stay mostly in the mid to high teens.
If you are planning a Tuesday journey, the time matters more than a single daily weather icon. London and the southeast have a better chance of improvement later in the day. Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England remain more exposed to repeated showers and gusty wind.
Wednesday: the best widespread break
A ridge of higher pressure is expected to build overnight, easing showers and allowing winds to fall. Wednesday should be dry for most places, with bright or sunny intervals. A few showers may continue near northern and eastern coasts.
Clearer skies also mean a chilly start. Some rural parts of Scotland could fall into low single figures, while towns and cities farther south generally stay in double figures. Afternoon temperatures return to the low 20s in the south and the mid to high teens farther north.
For outdoor plans, Wednesday currently offers the broadest dry window of the working week. It is still worth checking an hourly forecast in coastal areas, where showers may linger.
Thursday and Friday: rain crossing from west to east
Thursday begins chilly in central and eastern areas, with a touch of grass frost possible in a few sheltered spots. Much of central and eastern Britain should then have another fine spell. In the west, cloud will thicken as an Atlantic front brings rain and stronger wind into western and northwestern areas.
That system is expected to move east on Thursday night. Wales and the Midlands could see heavier bursts early Friday before the rain becomes lighter and more fragmented on its way southeast. Drier weather and some sunshine should follow. The south may reach the low or mid-20s Celsius.
What remains uncertain
The timing of Atlantic fronts can shift by several hours, which changes the best dry window for a particular town. Shower bands also produce sharp local differences: one place may get a brief downpour while a nearby place stays bright. Check the latest Met Office warning map and your city’s hourly forecast before travel or an outdoor event.